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Bitcoin is poised to reach a record high this year, according to a report, if past trends continue.

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As per a study, Bitcoin is positioned to reach an unprecedented high this year, should past behaviors continue.

Bitcoin has yet to reach the pinnacle of its existing appreciation cycle and is anticipated to surpass its previous peak this year, states a research paper issued by CCData recently.

In March, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high exceeding $73,700 but has since been fluctuating between approximately $59,000 and $72,000.

The journey to the record high in March was mainly propelled by the authorization and launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. in January. These ETFs have accumulated net inflows totaling around $14.41 billion so far, according to CCData.

ETFs provide a means for investors to purchase a product mirroring the bitcoin price without owning the actual cryptocurrency. Advocates of crypto argue that this has authenticated the asset class, facilitating greater participation from institutional investors.

The “cycle” of Bitcoin denotes the phase where the digital currency rises to a new peak and subsequently declines, entering a bear market or “crypto winter.” These cycles, of which three have been concluded since Bitcoin’s inception, have typically followed a similar trajectory.

Central to this pattern is an event known as the halving, during which the miner’s reward is halved, thereby reducing the bitcoin supply in circulation.

Unlike prior instances, where halving often precedes Bitcoin hitting an all-time high, the current cycle exhibited a different trend. The bullish sentiment surrounding the U.S. ETFs propelled Bitcoin to its latest peak before the halving.

Amid Bitcoin trading within a range post-all-time high, many are speculating whether the cryptocurrency has peaked in the current cycle.

CCData’s analysis of historical Bitcoin price movements suggests the potential for a new peak. The research firm pointed out that historical data indicates a phase of price growth lasting from 366 to 548 days post-halving, culminating in a cycle peak.

The most recent Bitcoin halving transpired on April 19 this year, meaning those historical timelines are yet to unfold.

“Furthermore, we have observed a decline in trading activity on centralized exchanges nearly two months post-halving in past cycles, which seems consistent with this cycle. This implies that the ongoing cycle could extend into 2025,” CCData stated.

The researchers acknowledged that the participation of institutional players in the sector in this cycle has “altered previous patterns,” noting that diminished trading activity might occur in the third quarter, potentially leading to sideways price movement.

“Nonetheless, the data and past trends sufficiently suggest that any sideways price action is temporary, and we are likely to break past prior all-time highs before this year concludes,” as per CCData.

The company’s report underlined the forthcoming debut of an Ethereum ETF in the U.S. and similar products globally, projecting an influx of capital, liquidity, and demand into the asset class.

CCData highlighted another significant historical data point in support of its thesis, stating that Bitcoin’s price surges transpire rapidly. For instance, in the 2012 cycle, around 91.4% of Bitcoin’s overall price surge from halving to record high unfolded in the four months leading to the cycle peak.

“Such exponential expansion is yet to materialize in the present cycle,” CCData remarked.

Various analysts have noted the historical trends in Bitcoin dynamics.

“Historically, market cycles peak 12 to 18 months post a Bitcoin Halving, which recently occurred in April this year. Additionally, volatility hasn’t reached previous peak levels. Lastly, former market cycle peaks correlated with a rapid succession of all-time highs – 10 to 20 new highs achieved within a 30-day span,” Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, disclosed via email.

“None of these indicators have triggered yet,” Perfumo added.

Source: CNBC

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